I think this one is not about the failure of something new but rather the victory over something old and how people cling to the past.

The album opens with abandoning maps and following not one's own star but an earthly pull -- something polar but not itself a pole (true north isn't a pole), a tension already made manifest well before this magnum opus, in which earthly polarity is no longer sought (as it's an illusion) but surrendered to, the search for a mathematical point given over to submission to the true earthly pull -- of the changing tides. Nothing even like a north star remains in view -- the "times," or zeitgeist, the "pull of tides" in human society, are embraced, and the lost wade not palliatively, like the religious dead, but matter-of-factly -- courageously! "Brothers, say goodbye! Sisters, don't cry!" -- into the changing tide. And we almost aquagenetically(!) go back to our beginnings, to go forward into our futures, and remain true to the earth.

havent heard it live yet, you i cant say much about gregs introduction other than this must have been a joke..

to me its about moving on from the status quo ( a depressing, mind numbing state of being, enforce by tradition and your comfort zone)

..embarking for change.. but failing in the end..

to me this songs beauty lies in the enthusiasm to strife for something more worthwhile and the immediate realisation of futileness of you ambition..

I think is about when someone lose somebody, or his/her plans fall apart. Maybe about any circumstances of life, when you got something planed, and suddenly everything changes.

This song is unambiguously about climate change. At least that is how Greg introduces it.

im thinking it talks about moving on to something new in life and the difficulties getting there

I simply see this song as a goodbye to the old and hello to something new and exciting.
In no way of course taking anything away from the old, but to move on to new things, turn the page or wade with the changing tide.
As for bad religion , this could be a way of saying goodbye as well, whether it be to the album true north, or to bad religion itself , considering it is the last song on the album or the last song on the last album.